Analysis of Financial Fundamental Integration and Institutional Fund Flows in Formulate Stock Recommendation : BBCA Case Study at PT Phintraco Securities

Firman Taufiqul Karim; Satia Nur Maharani

doi:10.63922/ijebir.v5i03.3731

Firman Taufiqul Karim Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, State University of Malang
Satia Nur Maharani Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economics and Business, State University of Malang

DOI: https://doi.org/10.63922/ijebir.v5i03.3731

Keywords: Fundamental Analysis, Institutional Capital Flow, Bandarmology , Stock Recommendation, BBCA

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the best practices in integrating financial fundamental analysis and institutional capital flow analysis ( Bandarmology ) to formulate stock recommendations, using a case study of the price movement anomaly of PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) at PT Phintraco Securities . A qualitative approach with a descriptive analytical case study method was employed. Data were gathered through participatory observation during an internship period (February 16 – July 16, 2026), in-depth interviews with the security's analysis team, and documentation of financial statements and broker summary transaction data. The analysis reveals that despite BBCA's excellent fundamentals reflected by a current account savings account (CASA) ratio above 80%, an exceptionally low no-performing loan (NPL) rate, and superior operational profitability (ROE and NIM) its stock price experienced a significant decline due to structured selling pressure from large institutional investors and foreign funds (smart money). In response to this anomaly, PT Phintraco Securities implements a two-stage investment framework: financial ratio analysis serves as the initial screening tool for asset quality (what to buy), while institutional flow and price action dictate short-to-medium-term momentum tracking (when to buy).

References

Affiliation, Junlin Yang. “Institutional Differences, Crisis Shocks, and Volatility Structure : A By-Window EGARCH / TGARCH Analysis of ASEAN Stock Markets. ” : 1–32.
Analysis , Role, Fundamentals in , and Stock Valuation . 2026. “Jurnal Maneksi (Management, Economics and Accounting).” 15(1): 242–54.
Aprella, Revi et al. 2025. "PUSH FACTOR AND PULL FACTOR ANALYSIS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH THROUGH CAPITAL FLOWS IN INDONESIA Push Factor and Pull Factor..." 13(1): 1–14.
Avci, S Burcu. 2024. “Attracting Institutional Investments to Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkiye .” (January 2023): 4902–31.
Dynamics, Herding. 2024. “Herding Dynamics, Volatility, and Market Capitalization: Implications for Stock Returns in Indonesia.” 7(2): 300–314.
Firmansyah, Amrie, and Nafis Dwi. 2025. "Institutional Ownership and Corporate Sustainable Growth: Insights from the Indonesian Banking Sector." 12(1): 89–110.
Hayati, Nurul, Dini Rusqiati, Antung Noor Asiah, and Henny Septiana Amalia. 2024. "The Influence of Profitability, Dividend Policy and Institutional Ownership on Banking Stock Prices Listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange." 5(8): 1–8.
Herding, ANY, Behavior On, THE Indonesia, and Stock Exchange. 2024. “No Title.” 8(3): 711–21.
Info, Article et al. 2025. "Investment Preferences of Institutional Investors in Indonesia: A Comparative Analysis of Pressure-Sensitive and Pressure-Insensitive."
Irawan, Syahril , and Lucky Nugroho. 2025. “Institutional Ownership, Firm Size, Leverage, and Profitability : Their Impact on Firm Value in the Indonesian Banking Sector.” 2(1): 64–80.
Journal , Jicn et al. 2025. " Comparison of Institutional and Individual Investor Portfolio Performance on the Stock Exchange Indonesia : 5- Year Data Analysis " Final Comparison of Institutional and Individual Investor Portfolio Performance on the Indonesia Stock Exchange: Data Analysis for the Last 5 Years."
Studies, Journals , and Business . 2025. “CURRENT.” 6(3): 683–700.
Lusiana, Sindi Ayu, Lukita Tripermata, and Andini Utari Putri. 2025. “ Fundamental and Technical Analysis On Stock Returns in IDX 30 Multisector Companies Listed on the IDX.” 4(4): 873–79.
Nasution, Febriza Damaianti et al. 2025. “ PROFJES : Prophetic Journal of Islamic Economics Dynamics Causality Foreign Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Variables on the Jakarta Islamic Index for the 2020-2024 Period JII Stock Price Index 2020-2024 .” 04(02).
Papasotiriou, Kassiani, Shayleen Reynolds, and Tucker Balch. 2024. “AI in Investment Analysis : LLMs for Equity Stock Ratings.”
Perdana, Aga Arye. 2023. “ The Relationship Between Foreign Flow Investors and the IHSG - Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX ) 2019 – 2022.” 1(1): 12–20.
Putra, Yudha Pradipta, Wita Juwita Ermawati, and Gendut Suprayitno . 2024. "RATIONALITY OF INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS AND INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CRISIS (A CASE STUDY IN INDONESIA'S TOP-4 BANKS) ." 10(1): 125–36.
Rasyid, Annisa, Asep Budiyana Muharam, and Achmad Solichin. 2025. “ Predicting Indonesian Sharia Stock Prices Based on Fundamental, Technical and Bandarmology Analysis Using the Random Forest Method.” 10(2): 1663–77.
Ristanti , Nadia, and Dian Mega Pratiwi. 2025. "The Effect of Financial Performance Indicators on Stock Prices in the Banking Sector Listed on the IDX." 3(1): 1–8.
Saputro, Daniel Tunggono et al. 2023. “ Stock Price Prediction Analysis Using Neural Network and Net Foreign Flow.” 7(2): 96–104.
Suarmanayasa , I N. 2025. “THE INFLUENCE OF MANAGERIAL OWNERSHIP, COMPANY FINANCIAL OWNERSHIP IN THE BANKING SUB-SECTOR.” 11(2): 538–46.
Umar, Rizqi , Al Hashfi, William Wendy Ary, and Gadjah Mada University. 2021. " Interaction and Causality Between Net Foreign Flow and Sharia Stock Returns (Study Empirical Analysis of Sharia Stocks Jakarta Islamic Index Period 2012-2018 ) .” 10(2): 253–79.
Vertiwi , Ezzy Cardila, Novitri Kurniati, Tiara Anjellina Putri, and Muhammadiyah University of Bengkulu. 2025. “RETAIL INVESTOR BEHAVIOR AND INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS.” 2(2): 366–80.
Vivien, Manuel, and Ricardo Tampubolon. 2024. “Literature Study of Combination of Fundamental and Technical Analysis as an Effective Stock Investment Strategy.” 2(1).
Wu, Yimin, and Tomoo Kikuchi. 2025. “Innovation , Institutions and Three Dimensions of Financial Structure ∗.” : 1–21.
Yang, Junlin , and Wenzhou- kean University . “Institutional Learning and Volatility Transmission in ASEAN Equity Markets : A Network-Integrated Regime-Dependent Approach.”
Yassarah, Fitri Sabiyla, Sumarno Manrejo , and Bambang Prayogo . 2025. “ Fair Price Analysis of Shares Using Fundamental Analysis in Stock Investment Decisions .” 2.