Analysis of the Impact of Tobacco Excise Tax Increases on Corporate Surplus and Fiscal Sustainability in Indonesia’s Tobacco
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the impact of increases in Tobacco Product Excise (CHT) rates on corporate surplus and fiscal sustainability in Indonesia’s Tobacco Product Industry (IHT) during the 2020–2024 period. The research uses a descriptive quantitative approach with a sample of four IHT companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange: PT Gudang Garam Tbk, PT HM Sampoerna Tbk, PT Indonesian Tobacco Tbk, and PT Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk. The data consist of annual financial reports, CHT rate regulations, and official government revenue publications. The variables include CHT rate increases, corporate surplus (measured by net profit and Net Profit Margin), and fiscal performance (measured by excise revenue and Corporate Income Tax). The analysis is conducted using descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and inter-period comparisons. The results show that although the increase in CHT rates slowed and remained unchanged in 2024, corporate surplus tended to fluctuate and weaken toward the end of the period. Meanwhile, excise revenue remained high and stable, but Corporate Income Tax contributions tended to decline. These findings indicate a trade-off between maximizing excise revenue and maintaining a stable corporate tax base. Therefore, integrated policies are needed to ensure optimal government revenue while maintaining corporate sustainability.
Keywords: Tobacco Excise, corporate surplus, Net Profit Margin, Corporate Income Tax, fiscal sustainability.
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