Price Volatility and Correlation of Animal Protein Food Commodities in South Sulawesi

Abdul Rahman Nur; Mohammad Natsir; Amruddin; Sri Mardiyati; Muh. Arifin Fattah

doi:10.63922/ijebir.v5i02.2998

Abdul Rahman Nur Master of Agribusiness Study Program, Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar
Mohammad Natsir Master of Agribusiness Study Program, Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar
Amruddin Master of Agribusiness Study Program, Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar
Sri Mardiyati Master of Agribusiness Study Program, Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar
Muh. Arifin Fattah Master of Agribusiness Study Program, Universitas Muhammadiyah Makassar

DOI: https://doi.org/10.63922/ijebir.v5i02.2998

Keywords: price volatility, beef, broiler, eggs, food inflation.

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the price fluctuations of beef, broiler chicken, and chicken eggs as sources of animal protein, as well as to analyze the correlation between commodity prices and food inflation in South Sulawesi Province, during 2021–2025. Secondary monthly time series data were obtained from the Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS) and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Data were analyzed using coefficient of variation (CV) analysis and Pearson correlation. The results show that beef prices in modern markets fluctuate more (CV 9.16%) than in traditional markets (CV 8.01%), while wholesalers experience the highest volatility in the beef supply chain (CV 11.11%) compared to producers (CV 8.86%) and retailers (CV 8.51%). Broiler chicken prices were more stable in modern markets (CV 12.64%) than in traditional markets (CV 19.82%), but wholesalers again experienced the highest volatility (CV 31.07%), followed by producers (CV 28.56%) and retailers (CV 10.17%). Egg prices were slightly more stable in modern markets than in traditional markets (CV 19.45 vs. 20.24%), while producers recorded the highest volatility (CV 24.06%), followed by wholesalers (CV 21.13%) and retailers (CV 18.54%). Monthly food inflation averaged 0.331% and was highly volatile (CV 5.228%). Pearson correlation analysis revealed a strong and highly significant positive correlation between beef and egg prices (r=0.759; p<0.01), while the correlations between beef and broiler chicken, and between broiler chicken and eggs, were weak and insignificant. The correlation between each animal protein price and food inflation is negative and statistically insignificant, indicating that food inflation in South Sulawesi is mainly driven by other staple commodities.

References

Afriani, H., Farhan, M., Farizal, F., Firmansyah, F., & Hoesni, F. (2022). Perilaku harga pada pasar tradisional dan modern untuk komoditas daging ayam ras di Kota Jambi (Periode sebelum, awal dan masa pandemi Covid-19). Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business, 6(1), 168–176. https://doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v6i1.539
Anwar, C., Suhendra, I., Srimulyani, A., Zahara, V., Ginanjar, R., & Suci, S. (2023). Food price and inflation volatilities during Covid-19 period: Empirical study of a region in Indonesia. In WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics (Vol. 20).
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2024). Harga rata-rata beberapa komoditas penting di Sulawesi Selatan 2021–2023. BPS Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2025). Statistik daerah Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan 2025. BPS Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan.
Barrett, C. B., & Bellemare, M. F. (2011). Why food price volatility doesn’t matter. Foreign Affairs, 90(6), 142–150.
Erol, E., & Saghaian, S. (2022). The COVID-19 pandemic and dynamics of price adjustment in the U.S. beef sector. Sustainability, 14(8). https://doi.org/10.3390/su14084391
FAO. (2021). The state of food security and nutrition in the world 2021. FAO.
FAO. (2026). FAO Food Price Index. https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
Fousekis, P., Katrakilidis, C., & Trachanas, E. (2016). Vertical price transmission in the U.S. beef sector: Evidence from the nonlinear ARDL model. Economic Modelling, 52, 499–506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.09.030
Girsang, P., Toiba, H., & Syafrial, S. (2023). Egg chicken race price volatility in Indonesia before and during Covid-19 pandemic. Agricultural Socio-Economics Journal, 23(1), 29–37.
Glauber, J. W. (2007). Double indemnity: Crop insurance and the failure of U.S. agricultural disaster policy. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 74(3), 615–641.
Harahap, A., Firmansyah, F., & Hoesni, F. (2023). Assessing the welfare effects of rising prices of animal-derived sources of food on urban households in Indonesia. Journal of Economics and Business, 6(1), 45–63.
Hasanah, N., Abadi, S., & Melani, A. (2025). Analisis efek fluktuasi harga komoditas pangan terhadap inflasi di Provinsi Kalimantan Utara. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Agroinfo Galuh, 12(1), 10–22. https://doi.org/10.25157/jimag.v12i1.16875
IFPRI. (2024). Despite improved global market conditions, high food price inflation persists. IFPRI. https://www.ifpri.org/blog/despite-improved-global-market-conditions-high-food-price-inflation-persists/
Javadi, A., Ghahremanzadeh, M., & Soumeh, E. (2024). Investigating the price volatility spillover effects in the poultry industry inputs market and the egg market in Iran: Using the multivariate DCC-GARCH model. Agriculture & Food Security, 13, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-024-00472-6
Komalawati, K., Asmarantaka, R. W., Nurmalina, R., & Hakim, D. B. (2021). Volatilitas dan transmisi harga daging sapi di Indonesia: Studi kasus di Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang dan Surabaya. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, 15(1), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v15i1.491
Lestari, I. (2025). The effect of food commodity price fluctuations on inflation in East Java. Journal of Current Studies in SDGs, 1(2), 32–45. https://doi.org/10.63230/jocsis.1.2.32
Mubarok, A. F., Setiadi, A., Wulandari, K., & Yusuf, E. (2024). Volatilitas harga daging dan telur ayam ras di Indonesia. Analisis Kebijakan Pertanian, 22(2), 151–167. https://doi.org/10.21082/akp.v22i2.151-167
Nazlioglu, S., Erdem, C., & Soytas, U. (2013). Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets. Energy Economics, 36, 658–665. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.11.009
Ogundeji, A., & Maré, F. (2020). Analysis of price transmission in the beef value chain using a calculated retail carcass price. Agrekon, 59(2), 144–155. https://doi.org/10.1080/03031853.2019.1700808
Pratiwi, D., Andarwangi, T., Tantriadisti, S., & Ulfah, M. (2025). Integrasi pasar dan elastisitas transmisi harga daging ayam ras (broiler) di pasar tradisional Indonesia. Mimbar Agribisnis, 11(2), 123–138. https://doi.org/10.25157/ma.v11i2.17594
Rizvi, S. A. R., Saxena, S. C., & Sahminan. (2020). Commodity price and inflation dynamics: Evidence from BRIICS. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 23(4), 493–520. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v23i4.1418
Saptana, & Ilham, N. (2020). Pengembangan rantai pasok daging ayam secara terpadu di Jawa Barat dan Jawa Timur. Analisis Kebijakan Pertanian, 18(1), 41–57. https://doi.org/10.21082/akp.v18n1.2020.41-57
Siregar, W., Wibowo, R., & Siahaan, E. (2025). Socioeconomic dimensions of food price fluctuations and regional inflation in Indonesia: Insights from Java and Sumatra. Baileo: Jurnal Sosial Humaniora, 3(2), 332–352. https://doi.org/10.30598/baileofisipvol3iss2pp332-352
Tenriawaru, A. N., Kamaruddin, I., & Rachman, A. (2024). Pengaruh harga pangan strategis terhadap inflasi di Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan. Agrisocionomics, 8(1), 45–58.
Warr, P., & Yusuf, A. A. (2014). World food prices and poverty in Indonesia. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 58(3), 385–404. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12033
Wibowo, R. P., Pebriyani, D., Indrawati, T., & Khaliqi, M. (2025). How beef, chicken, and egg demand elasticities vary with income in Indonesia. Jurnal AGRISEP, 24(1), 1–18.
World Bank. (2024). Food security update: Domestic food price inflation remains high. World Bank.