Analysis of the Influence of Tobacco Production and Consumption  Tobacco on Volume of Tobacco Export with the Excise Tax on  Tobacco as a Moderating Variable in Indonesia

Tsaqif Fadhlilhaq; M. Taufiq

doi:10.63922/ijebir.v4i05.2220

Tsaqif Fadhlilhaq Departement of Development Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Jawa Timur.
M. Taufiq Departement of Development Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Pembangunan Nasional “Veteran” Jawa Timur.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.63922/ijebir.v4i05.2220

Keywords: Tobacco Export Volume, Tobacco Production, Consumption Tobacco, Excise Tax Tobacco.

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of tobacco production and domestic
consumption on Indonesia’s tobacco export volume, with the excise tariff as a
moderating variable. Using annual data from 2008 to 2023, the research applies
multiple linear regression and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA). Results
indicate that production positively and significantly affects exports, while consumption
has a significant negative effect. However, the tobacco excise tariff does not
significantly moderate these relationships. These findings highlight that production and
consumption directly influence export performance, whereas the current excise policy
is ineffective as a moderating tool. The study offers important insights for improving
tobacco trade policy and boosting the competitiveness of Indonesia’s tobacco industry
in international markets.

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